Clinton won't leave on his own

Impeachment won't happen primarily because public opinion will drive that decision and most Americans don't favor it. As much as members of Congress want to follow their conscience, they also want to get re-elected. If they ignore their constituents on this one, the backlash will cost many their seats.

Most people still regard the allegations against Bill Clinton as all about sex. They take a tolerant view -- characteristic of non-judgmental baby boomers -- that lying about an affair is human nature and not a big deal. They also regard Kenneth Starr's investigation as heavily partisan, a view reinforced by all of the salacious details included in his report to Congress.

I see it differently.

The principal accusations against Clinton are perjury and obstruction of justice. I think lying under oath and lying to the country are very big deals, no matter what the subject, especially when the liar is the president. He would still be lying today were it not for a dress and a DNA test.

While I have doubts about Starr's 4 1/2-year crusade and think he went overboard in detailing the president's sexual engagements, remember that it was Clinton's hair-splitting denial of sexual relations that made those details relevant.

Congress has other self-interested reasons for taking a middle course and settling for a penalty short of impeachment.

Republicans don't want to hand Al Gore the advantage of incumbency in the 2000 campaign. Democrats don't want to bear the cross of having the leader of their party thrown out of office. A significant number of members in both parties don't want to come down too hard on Clinton for fear their own indiscretions will be revealed.

The president won't resign because he's not feeling enough pressure. That's too bad. A resignation would avoid a distracting political spectacle that will run well into next year. But Clinton seems unlikely to put the country's best interests or his party's best interests ahead of his own.

Richard Nixon was pushed toward resignation in 1974 by Barry Goldwater's wise counsel. The Democratic Party today has no one of Goldwater's stature willing to make the case for resigning to the president. I thought Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut might, but following his forceful rebuke of Clinton two weeks ago, he evidently decided to back off.

Clinton will stick with his legalistic testimony that he didn't have sexual relations with Lewinsky because to do otherwise would admit perjury and expose him to greater legal peril.

Many people, including Democrats, think he would gain more public support and lower the risk of impeachment if he moved off that absurd assertion.

But owning up to perjury could prompt the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to reinstate the Paula Jones lawsuit, it could lead to a criminal charge after he leaves office, and it would strengthen the perjury allegation before Congress. If impeachment proceedings go forward, that charge could prove to be the most serious.

Clinton's attorneys have taken much criticism for pressing their lawyerly arguments about what constitutes sexual relations. Said Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey:

"I do not want my children to believe that the only standard of truth to which they, much less a president of the United States, must aspire is legal accuracy."

That's nicely put, but the president's lawyers aren't stupid. Clinton chose to skirt the truth in both his Jones deposition and grand jury testimony. He's stuck in a box of his own design. Candor at this point would be politically helpful but legally destructive.

I see much dreariness ahead in Washington, week after week given to theorizing, harrumphing and posturing. Neither the public nor the Congress has the stomach to boot out Clinton, and he hasn't the grace to leave on his own. He's ours to endure, a deeply dishonored president, much more a survivor than a leader.

Steve Wilson can be reached at 444-8775 or at steve.wilson@pni.com via e-mail.